Important dates:
(purple dashed lines) May 14: Stay-at-Home reversed; May 25: Memorial Day; July 4: Independence Day
(blue dashed lines) March 25: Stay-at-Home order; Aug 1: WI mask mandate
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.
Estimated Active, split by Age group:
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 08 2020 | 2264 | 24352 | 71 | 8 | 324 | 530 |
| October 09 2020 | 2308 | 24857 | 72 | 8 | 339 | 532 |
| October 10 2020 | 2341 | 25137 | 74 | 8 | 341 | 501 |
| October 11 2020 | 2393 | 25289 | 75 | 8 | 377 | 506 |
| October 12 2020 | 2400 | 26190 | 76 | 8 | 342 | 460 |
| October 13 2020 | 2454 | 26333 | 80 | 9 | 354 | 485 |
| October 14 2020 | 2471 | 26464 | 80 | 9 | 348 | 471 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.3% | 8 | 0.07% | 11 | 0.1% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 8.6 | 20.4% | 71 | 0.52% | 89 | 0.65% |
| 20-29 | 1 | 7.9 | 19.5% | 68 | 0.32% | 112 | 0.54% |
| 30-39 | 5 | 5.0 | 14.4% | 50 | 0.37% | 62 | 0.46% |
| 40-49 | 3 | 5.0 | 14.1% | 49 | 0.47% | 59 | 0.56% |
| 50-59 | 2 | 2.4 | 10.3% | 36 | 0.29% | 53 | 0.42% |
| 60-69 | 3 | 3.9 | 10.1% | 35 | 0.3% | 47 | 0.41% |
| 70+ | 3 | 3.4 | 8.9% | 31 | 0.3% | 38 | 0.36% |
| All ages | 17 | 37.1 | 100% | 348 | 0.33% | 471 | 0.45% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 08 2020 | 730 | 15930 | 30 | 0 | 175 | 232 |
| October 09 2020 | 763 | 16066 | 30 | 0 | 196 | 246 |
| October 10 2020 | 787 | 16174 | 31 | 0 | 202 | 265 |
| October 11 2020 | 812 | 16245 | 32 | 0 | 217 | 266 |
| October 12 2020 | 833 | 16461 | 32 | 0 | 223 | 278 |
| October 13 2020 | 859 | 16537 | 33 | 1 | 229 | 292 |
| October 14 2020 | 887 | 16653 | 35 | 1 | 246 | 302 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.7 | 2.8% | 7 | 0.09% | 12 | 0.15% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 1.4 | 4.9% | 12 | 0.14% | 15 | 0.18% |
| 20-29 | 4 | 5.1 | 16.7% | 41 | 0.58% | 48 | 0.67% |
| 30-39 | 4 | 4.7 | 17.1% | 42 | 0.5% | 53 | 0.63% |
| 40-49 | 7 | 4.9 | 18.3% | 45 | 0.58% | 49 | 0.63% |
| 50-59 | 11 | 5.0 | 19.1% | 47 | 0.48% | 54 | 0.56% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 2.9 | 11.4% | 28 | 0.33% | 31 | 0.37% |
| 70+ | 0 | 2.0 | 8.9% | 22 | 0.31% | 37 | 0.52% |
| All ages | 28 | 27.0 | 100% | 246 | 0.38% | 302 | 0.47% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 08 2020 | 553 | 9194 | 28 | 6 | 75 | 116 |
| October 09 2020 | 575 | 9300 | 28 | 6 | 93 | 131 |
| October 10 2020 | 598 | 9317 | 29 | 6 | 108 | 142 |
| October 11 2020 | 618 | 9321 | 29 | 6 | 120 | 152 |
| October 12 2020 | 631 | 9335 | 29 | 6 | 127 | 153 |
| October 13 2020 | 645 | 9849 | 30 | 6 | 129 | 163 |
| October 14 2020 | 678 | 10225 | 32 | 6 | 156 | 188 |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 08 2020 | 3441 | 28170 | 59 | 8 | 386 | 603 |
| October 09 2020 | 3486 | 28692 | 60 | 8 | 391 | 540 |
| October 10 2020 | 3516 | 28683 | 62 | 10 | 386 | 526 |
| October 11 2020 | 3535 | 28681 | 62 | 10 | 330 | 488 |
| October 12 2020 | 3566 | 28705 | 62 | 10 | 321 | 511 |
| October 13 2020 | 3587 | 28801 | 67 | 11 | 303 | 492 |
| October 14 2020 | 3605 | 28946 | 67 | 11 | 306 | 475 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 0.4 | 1.6% | 5 | 0.04% | 5 | 0.04% |
| 10-19 | 2 | 4.4 | 15% | 46 | 0.28% | 78 | 0.47% |
| 20-29 | 4 | 8.1 | 24.5% | 75 | 0.35% | 130 | 0.61% |
| 30-39 | 0 | 3.4 | 12.4% | 38 | 0.28% | 54 | 0.4% |
| 40-49 | 3 | 3.0 | 9.5% | 29 | 0.21% | 47 | 0.35% |
| 50-59 | 1 | 3.0 | 10.1% | 31 | 0.22% | 52 | 0.37% |
| 60-69 | 3 | 3.7 | 12.1% | 37 | 0.26% | 55 | 0.39% |
| 70+ | 4 | 3.3 | 14.7% | 45 | 0.35% | 54 | 0.42% |
| All ages | 18 | 29.4 | 100% | 306 | 0.26% | 475 | 0.4% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 08 2020 | 10841 | 206251 | 405 | 43 | 1078 | 1638 |
| October 09 2020 | 11035 | 207665 | 417 | 43 | 1178 | 1690 |
| October 10 2020 | 11240 | 208579 | 421 | 43 | 1111 | 1752 |
| October 11 2020 | 11421 | 208622 | 426 | 43 | 1220 | 1814 |
| October 12 2020 | 11585 | 209269 | 430 | 43 | 1368 | 1822 |
| October 13 2020 | 11693 | 210210 | 434 | 45 | 1354 | 1836 |
| October 14 2020 | 11855 | 211170 | 444 | 46 | 1403 | 1726 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 9 | 7.7 | 4.8% | 67 | 0.11% | 94 | 0.16% |
| 10-19 | 20 | 23.4 | 14.1% | 198 | 0.28% | 282 | 0.4% |
| 20-29 | 45 | 38.0 | 22.4% | 314 | 0.3% | 396 | 0.38% |
| 30-39 | 27 | 26.0 | 15.9% | 223 | 0.29% | 253 | 0.33% |
| 40-49 | 23 | 22.6 | 14.4% | 202 | 0.31% | 216 | 0.33% |
| 50-59 | 23 | 20.3 | 13% | 182 | 0.28% | 225 | 0.34% |
| 60-69 | 9 | 13.9 | 9.8% | 138 | 0.25% | 165 | 0.3% |
| 70+ | 6 | 8.3 | 5.6% | 79 | 0.16% | 95 | 0.19% |
| All ages | 162 | 160.1 | 100% | 1403 | 0.26% | 1726 | 0.32% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 08 2020 | 141830 | 1506828 | 8061 | 1424 | 24242 | 33506 |
| October 09 2020 | 144818 | 1518662 | 8199 | 1440 | 24863 | 33990 |
| October 10 2020 | 147560 | 1530306 | 8319 | 1458 | 25286 | 33915 |
| October 11 2020 | 150236 | 1537877 | 8398 | 1465 | 25075 | 34374 |
| October 12 2020 | 152192 | 1545692 | 8454 | 1474 | 24286 | 34604 |
| October 13 2020 | 155471 | 1556954 | 8601 | 1508 | 24673 | 35516 |
| October 14 2020 | 158578 | 1568389 | 8754 | 1536 | 25915 | 36304 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 100 | 92.6 | 3.3% | 845 | 0.13% | 1180 | 0.18% |
| 10-19 | 259 | 263.7 | 9.2% | 2374 | 0.31% | 3459 | 0.46% |
| 20-29 | 534 | 500.3 | 17.4% | 4500 | 0.59% | 6452 | 0.85% |
| 30-39 | 511 | 458.7 | 16% | 4140 | 0.55% | 5689 | 0.75% |
| 40-49 | 429 | 420.6 | 14.9% | 3860 | 0.55% | 5420 | 0.78% |
| 50-59 | 542 | 469.0 | 16.7% | 4326 | 0.53% | 6092 | 0.75% |
| 60-69 | 394 | 349.0 | 12.5% | 3236 | 0.43% | 4461 | 0.59% |
| 70+ | 338 | 286.1 | 10.2% | 2634 | 0.41% | 3551 | 0.55% |
| All ages | 3107 | 2840.0 | 100% | 25915 | 0.45% | 36304 | 0.62% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 65.4 | 53.5 | 37.1 | 37.1 | 10.1% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 46.7 | 27 | 15.4 | 17.5% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 41.6 | 20.4 | 8.6 | 11.8% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40.2 | 47.1 | 61.1 | 29.4 | 42 | 11.2% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31.6 | 39.7 | 38.1 | 160.1 | 121.6 | 14.6% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 62.4 | 45.7 | 85.2 | 2840 | 2450.4 | 20.9% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 18.4 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.38 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-11-04 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 1655"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges